FA Cup | First Round Replays
Nov 15, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The Amlin Stadium
Lisbie (44' pen.)
Williams (76')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Form, Standings, Stats
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:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
We said: Cray Valley Paper Mills 0-3 Charlton Athletic
Not a single ounce of pressure should be weighing on the shoulders of Cray Valley, who have already gone toe-to-toe with Charlton on rival territory and should see no reason why lightning cannot strike twice in Eltham.
The Addicks would not require a replay had they shown more of a clinical edge on November 5, though, and while the FA Cup always springs a shock or two, we can only picture Appleton's men giving their eighth-tier hosts a rude awakening and booking their spot in the second round.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 86.53%. A draw had a probability of 8.7% and a win for Cray Valley Paper Mills had a probability of 4.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 0-3 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (8.46%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.74%), while for a Cray Valley Paper Mills win it was 2-1 (1.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Charlton Athletic would win this match.
| Result |
| Cray Valley Paper Mills | Draw | Charlton Athletic |
4.75% ( -0.05) | 8.72% ( -0.03) | 86.53% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 53.72% ( -0.22) |
| 80.65% ( -0.06) | 19.35% ( 0.06) |
| 62.83% ( -0.09) | 37.16% ( 0.09) |
| Cray Valley Paper Mills Goals |
| 55.35% ( -0.23) | 44.65% ( 0.23) |
