FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 9, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Craven Cottage
Fulham4 - 1Watford
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Fulham 2-2 Ipswich
Sunday, January 5 at 2pm in Premier League
Sunday, January 5 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Watford 1-2 Sheff Utd
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in Championship
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in Championship
Goals
for
for
35
We said: Fulham 3-1 Watford
The previous three FA Cup meetings between Fulham and Watford have all required replays to determine a winner, with the Hornets winning the first two (1932 and 1983) before the Cottagers triumphed in 2005. There are no replays in the competition this time around, though, and although another tight affair could be in store on Thursday, we are backing the home side to take advantage of the visitors' poor run of form and secure their spot in the fourth round, even if Silva opts to make multiple changes. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fulham win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for Watford had a probability of 29.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fulham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.6%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-2 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fulham would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fulham | Draw | Watford |
46.51% ( -0.02) | 23.94% ( 0) | 29.54% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 59.01% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
