La Liga | Gameweek 4
Dec 21, 2021 at 6pm UK
Estadio El Madrigal
Villarreal5 - 2Alaves
We said: Villarreal 2-1 Alaves
Villarreal have struggled on home turf this term while Alaves have been abysmal on their travels. We expect a tightly-contested affair with a narrow victory for the hosts come the full-time whistle. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 62.87%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 15.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.47%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.4%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
| 62.87% | 22.08% | 15.05% |
| Both teams to score 45.09% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.36% | 51.64% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.58% | 73.42% |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.13% | 15.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.91% | 45.09% |
| Alaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.59% | 46.41% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 17.97% | 82.03% |
| Score Analysis |
Villarreal 62.85%
Alaves 15.05%
Draw 22.07%
| Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
| 1-0 @ 13.55% 2-0 @ 12.47% 2-1 @ 9.58% 3-0 @ 7.66% 3-1 @ 5.88% 4-0 @ 3.52% 4-1 @ 2.7% 3-2 @ 2.26% 5-0 @ 1.3% 4-2 @ 1.04% 5-1 @ 1% Other @ 1.91% Total : 62.85% | 1-1 @ 10.4% 0-0 @ 7.37% 2-2 @ 3.68% Other @ 0.63% Total : 22.07% | 0-1 @ 5.66% 1-2 @ 4% 0-2 @ 2.17% 1-3 @ 1.02% 2-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.26% Total : 15.05% |
How you voted: Villarreal vs Alaves
Villarreal
93.3%Draw
3.7%Alaves
3.1%163
Form Guide
