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Club Libertad
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 32 | 1st Leg
Jul 17, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Dr. Nicolas Leoz

Libertad
2 - 0
U. Catolica

Cardozo (49'), Sanabria (74')
Caballero (42')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Nieto (26'), Rodriguez (33'), Grillo (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Club Libertad and Universidad Catolica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Libertad

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Last Game: Libertad 2-1 Nacional
Friday, May 31 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Universidad Catolica

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Last Game: Cruzeiro 1-0 U. Catolica
Friday, May 31 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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We said: Club Libertad 2-1 Universidad Catolica

 Barring their Copa Libertadores disappointment, Libertad are enjoying a very impressive season and were in excellent form ahead of the international break. The hosts also got the better of this opponent a couple of seasons ago and we feel they will do likewise this time around. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 46%. A win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 28.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Universidad Catolica win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Club Libertad would win this match.

Result
Club LibertadDrawUniversidad Catolica
46% (0.11199999999999 0.11) 25.17% (0.248 0.25) 28.82% (-0.366 -0.37)
Both teams to score 54.38% (-1.052 -1.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.17% (-1.272 -1.27)48.82% (1.267 1.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.08% (-1.165 -1.17)70.92% (1.16 1.16)
Club Libertad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.75% (-0.47499999999999 -0.47)21.24% (0.47 0.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.85% (-0.73800000000001 -0.74)54.15% (0.734 0.73)
Universidad Catolica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.05% (-0.91799999999999 -0.92)30.94% (0.913 0.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.75% (-1.088 -1.09)67.24% (1.083 1.08)
Score Analysis
    Club Libertad 46%
    Universidad Catolica 28.82%
    Draw 25.17%
Club LibertadDrawUniversidad Catolica
1-0 @ 10.18% (0.377 0.38)
2-1 @ 9.25% (-0.014999999999999 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.89% (0.185 0.19)
3-1 @ 4.78% (-0.077000000000001 -0.08)
3-0 @ 4.07% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.8% (-0.118 -0.12)
4-1 @ 1.85% (-0.057 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.58% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.09% (-0.062 -0.06)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 46%
1-1 @ 11.94% (0.15 0.15)
0-0 @ 6.57% (0.335 0.34)
2-2 @ 5.43% (-0.148 -0.15)
3-3 @ 1.1% (-0.075 -0.08)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.17%
0-1 @ 7.71% (0.206 0.21)
1-2 @ 7.01% (-0.088 -0.09)
0-2 @ 4.52% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.74% (-0.105 -0.11)
2-3 @ 2.12% (-0.113 -0.11)
0-3 @ 1.77% (-0.042 -0.04)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 28.82%

How you voted: Libertad vs U. Catolica

Club Libertad
91.7%
Draw
8.3%
Universidad Catolica
0.0%
12
Head to Head
Mar 17, 2021 10.15pm
Second Round
Libertad
2-2
U. Catolica
Ferreira (33', 64')
Baez (71')
Chala (61'), Manuel Tevez (83' pen.)
Joel Carabali Prado (48'), De Los Santos (58')
Mar 10, 2021 10.15pm
Second Round
U. Catolica
0-1
Libertad

Manuel Tevez (37'), Ona (61')
Bogarin (38')
Cougo (15'), Mejia (21'), Ferreira (56'), Martinez (83')
rhs 2.0
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