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Copa Libertadores
Fluminense
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 30, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Fluminense
3 - 2
Alianza Lima

Keno (47'), Marcelo (52'), Kennedy (81')
Melo (32'), Marcelo (58'), Martinelli (60'), Ganso (76'), Kennedy (90+2'), Marquinhos (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Arregui (7'), Serna (50')
Arregui (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Fluminense and Alianza Lima, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fluminense

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Fluminense 2-0 Sampaio Correa
Wednesday, May 22 at 11pm in Copa do Brasil

Alianza Lima

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Alianza Lima 1-1 Colo-Colo
Thursday, May 16 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

We said: Fluminense 2-0 Alianza Lima

 Neither side is in top form on the domestic scene, but Flu's home advantage and long unbeaten record in this competition should see them cruise to victory. Only a point would keep Alianza's continental campaign alive, but they may be staring at a group-stage exit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 65.86%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 14.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.35%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.

Result
FluminenseDrawAlianza Lima
65.86% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04) 19.71% (0.015999999999998 0.02) 14.43% (0.016 0.02)
Both teams to score 50.97% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.08% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)42.91% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.68% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)65.31% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Fluminense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.81% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)12.18% (0.019 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.16% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)37.83% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Alianza Lima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.05% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)41.94% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.61% (-0.0029999999999966 -0)78.38% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Score Analysis
    Fluminense 65.85%
    Alianza Lima 14.43%
    Draw 19.71%
FluminenseDrawAlianza Lima
2-0 @ 11.32%
1-0 @ 10.75% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.84% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-0 @ 7.95% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 6.9% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 4.18% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.63% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
5-0 @ 1.76% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.58% (-0.002 -0)
5-1 @ 1.53% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 65.85%
1-1 @ 9.35% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.11% (0.008 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.27% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.97%
Total : 19.71%
0-1 @ 4.44% (0.008 0.01)
1-2 @ 4.06% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 1.93% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.24%
1-3 @ 1.18% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 1.58%
Total : 14.43%

How you voted: Fluminense vs Alianza Lima

Fluminense
100%
Draw
0.0%
Alianza Lima
0.0%
13
Head to Head
Apr 4, 2024 1.30am
Group Stage
Alianza Lima
1-1
Fluminense
Serna (35')
Huaman (22'), Pablo Freytes (85')
Marquinhos (72')
Melo (58')
rhs 2.0
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