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Asian Cup
Japan national football team
Asian Cup | Group Stage
Jan 24, 2024 at 11.30am UK
Al Thumama Stadium
Indonesia national football team

Japan
3 - 1
Indonesia

Ueda (6' pen., 52'), Hubner (88' og.)
Endo (68'), Minamino (70')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Walsh (90+1')
Struick (42'), Shin (43'), Amat (77'), Hubner (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Asian Cup clash between Japan and Indonesia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Iraq 2-1 Japan
Friday, January 19 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

Indonesia

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Vietnam 0-1 Indonesia
Friday, January 19 at 2.30pm in Asian Cup

We said: Japan 3-0 Indonesia

 As well as Indonesia have played to this point of the competition, they are facing a Japanese side in a foul mood after being frustrated by Iraq, and we expect the Samurai Blue to take out those frustrations on Tim Garuda and win this contest in convincing fashion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 59.44%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Indonesia had a probability of 19.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.4%) and 1-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.89%), while for a Indonesia win it was 1-2 (5.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
JapanDrawIndonesia
59.44% (-0.93 -0.93) 21.22% (0.447 0.45) 19.34% (0.483 0.48)
Both teams to score 56.51% (-0.682 -0.68)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.18% (-1.312 -1.31)40.82% (1.311 1.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.79% (-1.354 -1.35)63.2% (1.353 1.35)
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.61% (-0.68899999999999 -0.69)13.39% (0.688 0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.68% (-1.404 -1.4)40.31% (1.404 1.4)
Indonesia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.25% (-0.26700000000001 -0.27)34.74% (0.265 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.52% (-0.282 -0.28)71.47% (0.28 0.28)
Score Analysis
    Japan 59.44%
    Indonesia 19.34%
    Draw 21.22%
JapanDrawIndonesia
2-1 @ 9.94% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.4% (0.081 0.08)
1-0 @ 9.35% (0.318 0.32)
3-1 @ 6.66% (-0.166 -0.17)
3-0 @ 6.3% (-0.11 -0.11)
3-2 @ 3.52% (-0.114 -0.11)
4-1 @ 3.35% (-0.174 -0.17)
4-0 @ 3.17% (-0.14 -0.14)
4-2 @ 1.77% (-0.106 -0.11)
5-1 @ 1.35% (-0.107 -0.11)
5-0 @ 1.27% (-0.091 -0.09)
Other @ 3.35%
Total : 59.44%
1-1 @ 9.89% (0.267 0.27)
2-2 @ 5.26% (-0.03 -0.03)
0-0 @ 4.65% (0.273 0.27)
3-3 @ 1.24% (-0.049 -0.05)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 21.22%
1-2 @ 5.23% (0.104 0.1)
0-1 @ 4.92% (0.255 0.26)
0-2 @ 2.6% (0.117 0.12)
2-3 @ 1.85% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.84% (0.024 0.02)
0-3 @ 0.92% (0.035 0.04)
Other @ 1.98%
Total : 19.34%

How you voted: Japan vs Indonesia

Japan
59.7%
Draw
6.0%
Indonesia
34.3%
67
rhs 2.0
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