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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Lithuania national football team
Nations League | League C
Oct 15, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas
Romania national football team

Lithuania
1 - 2
Romania

Kucys (7' pen.)
Slivka (48'), Kucys (77'), Gineitis (85')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Marin (18' pen.), Dragus (65')
Burca (63'), Coman (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Lithuania and Romania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lithuania

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lithuania 1-2 Kosovo
Saturday, October 12 at 2pm in Nations League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Romania

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Cyprus 0-3 Romania
Saturday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Lithuania 0-2 Romania

 A class above their opponents at League C level, an ascendant Romania side should prolong their 100% record at Lithuania's expense. While the visitors may be bound for League B when the group phase wraps up next month, their ailing hosts are set to stay pointless with just two games to go. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 56.35%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 19.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.28%) and 1-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Romania would win this match.

Result
LithuaniaDrawRomania
19.09% (-0.489 -0.49) 24.56% (-0.214 -0.21) 56.35% (0.702 0.7)
Both teams to score 45.71% (-0.153 -0.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.01% (0.197 0.2)54.99% (-0.197 -0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.74% (0.162 0.16)76.26% (-0.163 -0.16)
Lithuania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.74% (-0.44 -0.44)43.26% (0.439 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.49% (-0.373 -0.37)79.51% (0.372 0.37)
Romania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.57% (0.34999999999999 0.35)19.43% (-0.351 -0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.74% (0.57 0.57)51.26% (-0.57 -0.57)
Score Analysis
    Lithuania 19.09%
    Romania 56.34%
    Draw 24.55%
LithuaniaDrawRomania
1-0 @ 7.04% (-0.14 -0.14)
2-1 @ 4.83% (-0.102 -0.1)
2-0 @ 2.95% (-0.096 -0.1)
3-1 @ 1.35% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-2 @ 1.11% (-0.025 -0.02)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 19.09%
1-1 @ 11.53% (-0.11 -0.11)
0-0 @ 8.41% (-0.065000000000001 -0.07)
2-2 @ 3.96% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 24.55%
0-1 @ 13.77% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-2 @ 11.28% (0.16 0.16)
1-2 @ 9.45% (0.020999999999999 0.02)
0-3 @ 6.16% (0.153 0.15)
1-3 @ 5.16% (0.068000000000001 0.07)
0-4 @ 2.52% (0.09 0.09)
2-3 @ 2.16% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-4 @ 2.12% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 3.72%
Total : 56.34%

How you voted: Lithuania vs Romania

Lithuania
7.7%
Draw
7.7%
Romania
84.5%
194
Head to Head
Sep 9, 2024 7.45pm
League C
Romania
3-1
Lithuania
Mihaila (4'), Marin (87' pen.), Mitrita (90+2')
Mihaila (65'), Tarnovanu (78'), Hagi (90+8')
Kucys (34')
Matulevicius (8'), Lekiatas (46'), Slivka (53'), Jankauskas (80')
> Preview
Nov 17, 2018 7.45pm
League Phase
Romania
3-0
Lithuania
Puscas (7'), Keseru (47'), Stanciu (65')
Bancu (25'), Puscas (35'), Anton (81'), Deac (82')

Novikovas (44'), Girdvainis (78')
Novikovas (88')
Oct 11, 2018 7.45pm
League Phase
Lithuania
1-2
Romania
Zulpa (89')
Slivka (69')
Chipciu (13'), Maxim (94')
Anton (32'), Chipciu (45'), Marin (85')
rhs 2.0
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