We said: Mauritania 1-0 Angola
While Mauritania could still be disappointed with the defeat at the hands of Burkina Faso, their defensive compactness puts them in good stead against the Angolans, and they could secure a historic first win at the Africa Cup of Nations against the Palancas Negras.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Angola win with a probability of 40.58%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 30.14% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Angola win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.08%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Angola would win this match.