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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 52.12%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 23.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Oxford United win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.
Result | ||
Sunderland | Draw | Oxford United |
52.12% ( -0.2) | 24.11% ( 0.06) | 23.77% ( 0.14) |
Both teams to score 53.3% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.86% ( -0.12) | 48.13% ( 0.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.71% ( -0.11) | 70.29% ( 0.11) |
Sunderland Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.55% ( -0.12) | 18.44% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.38% ( -0.2) | 49.62% ( 0.21) |
Oxford United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.36% ( 0.06) | 34.64% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.63% ( 0.07) | 71.36% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Sunderland | Draw | Oxford United |
1-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.13% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 5.14% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.17% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.32% Total : 52.12% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.13% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.11% | 0-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.11% Total : 23.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 32 |
2 | Sunderland | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
3 | Burnley | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 30 |
4 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 27 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 26 |
7 | Watford | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
8 | Millwall | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
11 | Derby CountyDerby | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
12 | Stoke CityStoke | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 20 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 19 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 17 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
22 | Hull City | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
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