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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 52.12%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 23.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Oxford United win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.
Result | ||
Sunderland | Draw | Oxford United |
52.12% ( -0.2) | 24.11% ( 0.06) | 23.77% ( 0.14) |
Both teams to score 53.3% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.86% ( -0.12) | 48.13% ( 0.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.71% ( -0.11) | 70.29% ( 0.11) |
Sunderland Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.55% ( -0.12) | 18.44% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.38% ( -0.2) | 49.62% ( 0.21) |
Oxford United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.36% ( 0.06) | 34.64% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.63% ( 0.07) | 71.36% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Sunderland | Draw | Oxford United |
1-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.13% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 5.14% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.17% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.32% Total : 52.12% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.13% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.11% | 0-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.11% Total : 23.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 16 | 38 |
2 | Burnley | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 36 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 35 |
4 | Sunderland | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 33 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 30 |
6 | Watford | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 30 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 28 |
8 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
9 | Norwich CityNorwich | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 27 | 8 | 25 |
10 | Millwall | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 25 |
11 | Bristol City | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 25 |
12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 25 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 23 |
14 | Stoke CityStoke | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Derby CountyDerby | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 18 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Preston North EndPreston | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
20 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 17 |
22 | Hull City | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
23 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
24 | Portsmouth | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 13 |
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