The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Monday's Nations League clash between Italy and Israel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Monday's UEFA Nations League clash with Israel.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Italy 2-2 Belgium
Thursday, October 10 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Thursday, October 10 at 7.45pm in Nations League
| Current League A2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Italy | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Belgium | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Israel | 3 | -6 | 0 |
We said: Italy 2-1 Israel
While their winning run ended on Thursday, it looks like Italy have re-found their rhythm since the Euros, so they should be too good for limited opponents in Udine. Israel have scored in each game so far, though, and they could find the net despite suffering a fourth straight defeat in Group 2. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 63.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Israel had a probability of 16.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Israel win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Italy | Draw | Israel |
63.01% ( 0.14) | 20.69% ( 0.06) | 16.3% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 52.2% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
