A cautious contest is to be expected between two teams that know each other so well, having met in several big games and with many Swiss stars plying their trade on the Italian peninsula.
Since the start of Euro 2016, Switzerland have drawn more European Championship matches than any other nation. Meanwhile, no fewer than 15 of Italy's last 26 knockout matches have gone to extra time - including four of the last five - and another 30 minutes may be needed to split these teams in Berlin.
Though they memorably won Euro 2020 by prevailing on spot-kicks at Wembley, the Azzurri's propensity to falter from 12 yards looms large; if they can find a way past Gianluigi Donnarumma, then steely Switzerland could edge through to the quarter-finals.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Italy win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Switzerland has a probability of 35.97% and a draw has a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Switzerland win is 1-0 (9.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.31%).