Portugal

4 - 1

Croatia

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 59.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Croatia had a probability of 18.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Croatia win it was 0-1 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.