The final battle of Florida in the 2023 MLS regular season will come with substantial playoff implications for Inter Miami, who travel to Exploria Stadium for a date with Orlando City.
On Wednesday, the Lions clinched a postseason berth despite losing 2-0 away to New York City FC, while the Herons are five points behind the Eastern Conference playoff line even though they crushed Toronto in midweek, 4-0.
Match preview
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As one streak ended, another continued for Orlando earlier this week, with their six-match unbeaten run in MLS snapped by the Boys in Blue, though they will be returning to the postseason for a fourth successive campaign.
With a victory on Sunday, the Lions would equal a club record for the longest domestic home winning streak in their MLS history set in 2017 (five) while they would also surpass a franchise record for points in a single domestic campaign, as the Lions are currently on 50 points this year, one fewer than their best-ever total from 2021.
Oscar Pareja's men have scored multiple goals in six successive MLS home fixtures while also claiming at least a point in eight straight domestic encounters in Orlando versus Eastern Conference opponents.
Job one of qualifying for the playoffs may be done, but there is still work to do when it comes to positioning, as the Lions sit two points above the Columbus Crew for second in the East with five matches remaining to try and secure a home playoff game for only the second time in club history.
Orlando have averaged over three goals per game in their last four MLS home outings, and if they can maintain that pace between now and the remainder of the regular season, the Lions have a chance at surpassing their best single-season total set in 2016 (55).
Barring a series of massive breakdowns along the back end in their final matches before the playoffs, this will be their best-ever domestic campaign defensively, with Orlando having conceded 36 goals to date, 12 fewer than their fewest-ever in a 34-game season set in 2021.
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A third win in their last four league fixtures came at a price for Inter Miami this week, as the Herons are up to 13th in the Eastern Conference and running out of time to make the playoffs.
There is no doubt that the signing of Lionel Messi has drastically changed the fortunes of this club, who looked down and out in the middle of July, sitting dead-last in the overall table before the 2022 World Cup winner arrived.
The resolve of this team will really be tested on Sunday as manager Tata Martino has already said that Messi and Jordi Alba will not be available against Orlando City because of muscle fatigue, a less-than-ideal scenario for a club who, despite all of their difficulties this year, have a shot at winning a treble, having previously captured the Leagues Cup, while they will face the Houston Dynamo in the final of the US Open Cup next week.
Playing without a seven-time Ballon d'Or winner in Messi is something this team may be a little accustomed to, as the Argentine has not featured in over two of their last three MLS encounters, as he was taken out of their match with TFC in the opening half, while the Herons have won two contests minus their number 10, outscoring Sporting Kansas City and Toronto by a total of 7-2 in those two triumphs.
Miami failed to find the back of the net in six of their opening 11 MLS road fixtures, but since capturing the Leagues Cup, they have netted multiple times in three straight league contests away from home.
They have never beaten the Lions on the road in six previous encounters in all competitions, notching a goal or fewer in all five of their MLS visits to Exploria Stadium.
Team News
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Orlando City could be without Favian Loyola this weekend because of a sore left arm, while Antonio Carlos might also be forced to sit out due to a right lower leg injury.
Pareja made two changes to his starting 11 on Wednesday as Wilder Cartagena and Facundo Torres drew into the opening lineup instead of Felipe Martins and Martin Ojeda.
An own goal from former Miami defender Damion Lowe in this exact fixture last year was all the Lions would need to claim a 1-0 triumph in a match where Pedro Gallese made six stops to collect a clean sheet.
Messi and Alba may be the two most notable absences for Miami this weekend, though Martino could also be missing Corentin Jean, Franco Negri and Ian Fray because of ACL issues, while Gregore is still recovering from a Lisfranc injury.
Robert Taylor had a brace in their midweek triumph over the Reds, Facundo Farias scored for the third time in his last four matches, Benjamin Cremaschi picked up goal number two of the 2023 MLS campaign and Drake Callender made two saves for his first clean sheet since August 31.
In their 3-1 Leagues Cup triumph this year versus the Lions, Messi notched a pair of goals, while Josef Martinez had a goal and an assist.
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Thorhallsson, Schlegel, Jansson, Petrasso; Araujo, Cartagena; Ojeda, Pereyra, Angulo; McGuire
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Callender; Yedlin, Allen, Kryvtsov, Aviles, Sailor; Ruiz, Busquets, Farias; Martinez, Campana
We say: Orlando City 1-0 Inter Miami
The Herons have shown they can find ways to win even without Messi, but fatigue may be getting the better of this team in general, with fewer than a week to rest in between their matches since the Leagues Cup.
Orlando are well-organised and compact defensively, and they have looked potent in the attacking third at home, so we expect them to find a way through what could be a defensive setup for the Herons on Sunday.
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Top tip
Joel Lefevre
