Man City
1 - 0
Chelsea

Kevin De Bruyne scores winner as Manchester City move 13 points clear of Chelsea

Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne celebrates scoring against Chelsea on January 15, 2022

Kevin De Bruyne scores the decisive goal to help Premier League leaders Manchester City claim a narrow 1-0 win against title rivals Chelsea on Saturday.

The Match

We said: Manchester City 2-0 Chelsea

Even if Man City are unable to recover some of their unnamed players from COVID-19 infection, Guardiola's side are refreshed, a force to be reckoned with at home and need no added incentive to all but extinguish the Blues' title hopes. Chelsea ought to be buoyed by two professional performances against Tottenham, but Man City away is a whole different kettle of fish, and we expect fatigue to work against the Blues as the champions extend their lead at the top. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 56.01%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Chelsea had a probability of 21.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.66%) and 2-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Chelsea win it was 1-2 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Chelsea
56.01%	22.38%	21.61%

Both teams to score 56.19%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.02%

42.98%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.62%

65.38%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.81%

15.19%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.18%

43.81%

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.25%

33.75%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.59%

70.41%

Score Analysis

Manchester City 56.01%

Chelsea 21.61%

Draw 22.38%

Manchester City	Draw	Chelsea
2-1 @ 9.89% 1-0 @ 9.66% 2-0 @ 9.1% 3-1 @ 6.21% 3-0 @ 5.72% 3-2 @ 3.37% 4-1 @ 2.93% 4-0 @ 2.69% 4-2 @ 1.59% 5-1 @ 1.1% 5-0 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.72% Total : 56.01%	1-1 @ 10.49% 2-2 @ 5.37% 0-0 @ 5.13% 3-3 @ 1.22% Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.38%	1-2 @ 5.7% 0-1 @ 5.57% 0-2 @ 3.02% 1-3 @ 2.06% 2-3 @ 1.95% 0-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.21% Total : 21.61%

How you voted: Man City vs Chelsea

Manchester City

61.3%

Draw

13.1%

Chelsea

25.6%

Head to Head

Sep 25, 2021 12.30pm

Gameweek 6

0-1

Alonso (77'), Christensen (78'), Rudiger (84')

Jesus (53')
Laporte (65'), Dias (90+6')

May 29, 2021 8pm

Final

0-1

Gundogan (35'), Jesus (88')

Havertz (42')
Rudiger (57')

May 8, 2021 5.30pm

Gameweek 35

1-2

Sterling (44')
Sterling (12'), Jesus (90')

Ziyech (63'), Alonso (90+2')

Apr 17, 2021 5.30pm

Semi-Finals

1-0

Ziyech (55')
James (34'), Azpilicueta (90')

Fernandinho (63'), Laporte (90+2'), Dias (90+5')

Jan 3, 2021 4.30pm

Gameweek 17

1-3

Hudson-Odoi (90+2')
Pulisic (45+1'), Kante (53'), Kovacic (71')

Gundogan (18'), Foden (21'), De Bruyne (34')
Silva (90')

Pep Guardiola labels Thomas Tuchel an "excellent" coach ahead of Chelsea clash

Form Guide

Swindon 1-4 Man City

Arsenal 1-2 Man City

Brentford 0-1 Man City

Man City 6-3 Leicester

Newcastle 0-4 Man City

Man City 7-0 Leeds

Spurs 0-1 Chelsea

Chelsea 5-1 Chesterfield

Chelsea 2-0 Spurs

Chelsea 2-2 Liverpool

Chelsea 1-1 Brighton

Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea

Build-up

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola pictured on September 18, 2021

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola heaps praise on Chelsea head coach Thomas Tuchel ahead of Saturday lunchtime's Premier League showdown.

Pep Guardiola confirms Manchester City squad hit by more COVID-19 cases

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola pictured on December 19, 2021

Pep Guardiola confirms that Manchester City have "some new cases" of COVID-19 ahead of their Premier League clash with title rivals Chelsea on Saturday lunchtime.

Chelsea defender Andreas Christensen tests positive for coronavirus

Chelsea's Andreas Christensen in action, October 20, 2021

Defender Andreas Christensen becomes the latest Chelsea player to test positive for coronavirus, ruling him out on Saturday's game at Manchester City.

Manchester City, Chelsea fixture to end seven-year streak

Manchester City's Bernardo Silva in action with Chelsea's Mateo Kovacic on September 25, 2021

Saturday's Premier League fixture between Manchester City and Chelsea will end a sequence which started exactly seven years ago.

Chelsea forward Romelu Lukaku's record vs. Manchester City

Chelsea's Romelu Lukaku on January 5, 2022

Ahead of Chelsea's game with Manchester City on Saturday, Sports Mole takes a look at the Belgian's record versus the Premier League leaders.

Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel: 'Lessons learned from last Manchester City defeat'

Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel looks on on September 11, 2021

Head coach Thomas Tuchel acknowledges that he used the wrong tactics when Chelsea faced Manchester City at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season.

Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel: 'Coronavirus, injuries difference in PL title race'

Chelsea head coach Thomas Tuchel during the game with Watford on December 1, 2021.

Chelsea head coach Thomas Tuchel feels that Manchester City's fewer injuries and coronavirus cases have made the difference in the Premier League title race.

Combined XI: Manchester City vs. Chelsea

Manchester City's Bernardo Silva celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 7, 2022

Ahead of Saturday's Premier League clash between Manchester City and Chelsea, Sports Mole picks a combined XI from both squads.

How Chelsea could line up against Manchester City

N'Golo Kante warms up for Chelsea in December 2021

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Chelsea could line up for Saturday's Premier League clash with Manchester City.

How Manchester City could line up against Chelsea

Phil Foden in action for Manchester City in December 2021

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Manchester City could line up for Saturday's Premier League clash with Chelsea.

Chelsea team news: Injury, suspension list vs. Manchester City

Chelsea defender Ben Chilwell goes off with a knee injury on November 23, 2021

Sports Mole rounds up all of Chelsea's latest injury and suspension news ahead of their Premier League clash with Manchester City on Saturday.

Manchester City's clash with Chelsea 'to go ahead despite COVID-19 outbreak'

Manchester City's Premier League showdown with Chelsea on Saturday is reportedly set to go ahead as planned, despite a coronavirus outbreak among Pep Guardiola's squad.

Manchester City team news: Injury, suspension list vs. Chelsea

Sports Mole rounds up all of Manchester City's latest injury and suspension news ahead of their Premier League fixture with Chelsea.