Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Vitoria de Guimaraes.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
31.16% ( -0.41) | 26.54% ( -0.09) | 42.3% ( 0.49) |
Both teams to score 51.29% ( 0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.59% ( 0.21) | 53.41% ( -0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.06% ( 0.18) | 74.94% ( -0.18) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.37% ( -0.17) | 31.63% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.96% ( -0.2) | 68.04% ( 0.2) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.01% ( 0.35) | 24.98% ( -0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.37% ( 0.49) | 59.63% ( -0.49) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
1-0 @ 9.1% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 2.79% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.84% Total : 31.16% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.9% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.54% | 0-1 @ 10.96% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.75% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 7.6% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 4.05% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.48% Total : 42.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |