Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 55.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 20.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.02%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-0 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
20.98% ( 0.01) | 23.57% ( 0.03) | 55.45% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 51.43% ( -0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.15% ( -0.09) | 48.85% ( 0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.05% ( -0.08) | 70.95% ( 0.09) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.32% ( -0.04) | 37.68% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.54% ( -0.04) | 74.46% ( 0.05) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.53% ( -0.04) | 17.47% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.06% ( -0.08) | 47.95% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.47% 2-0 @ 3.14% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.78% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.55% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.02% Other @ 1.6% Total : 20.98% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.58% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 23.56% | 0-1 @ 11.48% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 10.02% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0) 0-3 @ 5.83% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.69% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.54% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.64% Total : 55.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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