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Scottish Cup | Fourth Round

Jan 18, 2025 at 3pm UK

QotS Queen of the South
vs.
St Mirren

Preview

Data Analysis

Football

Preview: Queen of the South vs. St Mirren - prediction, team news, lineups

By Sam Varley, Reporter

Published: January 16 2025 | 22:23

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Scottish Cup clash between Queen of the South and St Mirren, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

St Mirren will travel to Palmerston Park on Saturday to take on Queen of the South in a Scottish Cup fourth-round tie.

The contest acts as a replay of last season's fourth-round meeting, in which the visitors progressed with a home win.

Match preview

Stephen Robinson of St Mirren during the UEFA Europa Conference League Second Qualifying Round Second Leg match at the SMISA Stadium, Paisley, on August 1, 2024 [on August 2, 2024] © Imago

Queen of the South return to Scottish Cup action on Saturday aiming to book a fifth-round place for the first time since the 2018-19 season, having fallen short at this stage last time around.

After four consecutive third-round exits, they met Dundee United last time around and progressed with a penalty shootout victory after a 2-2 draw, before meeting St Mirren in Paisley and bowing out following a 1-0 defeat.

The Doonhamers then set up a rematch in this year's competition by beating Arbroath in the third round in late November, as the game remained goalless until the final 10 minutes before Kyle Doherty netted the decider at Gayfield Park.

Peter Murphy's side now head back into cup action on the back of a mixed run in Scotland's third tier, having beaten Cove Rangers early in the new year and led Alloa Athletic through Benjamin Luissint, only to be held to a 1-1 draw by Scott Taggart's leveller from the penalty spot in injury time.

Remaining sixth in Scottish League One after that setback, Queen of the South will now bid to avenge last season's defeat and advance to the Scottish Cup fifth round with a victory at Palmerston Park.

Scott Tanser and Conor McMenamin of St Mirren on December 23, 2024 © Imago

Their visitors, meanwhile, will aim to again book a final-16 spot with a second trimuph over Queen of the South in as many seasons.

St Mirren entered at this stage of the competition last time around and progressed past Saturday's hosts in Paisley, only to draw Celtic and fall short of the quarter-finals in a 2-0 defeat.

Having advanced past this stage in each of their last six campaigns, reaching the semi-finals once in the 2020-21 term, the Saints now kick off their latest bid on the back of a tough run in the Scottish Premiership, having dropped to dropped to eighth spot on the back of four straight defeats around the turn of the year.

After falling short against Dundee, Kilmarnock and Celtic, Stephen Robinson's side most recently hosted Dundee United last weekend and succumbed to a 1-0 loss as Louis Moult broke the deadlock at the SMISA Stadium in the 88th minute and snatched all three points.

Now aiming to put that disappointment behind them, St Mirren will aim to repeat last season's victory over Queen of the South and book a round-of-16 spot.

Queen of the South Scottish Cup form:

Queen of the South form (all competitions):

St Mirren form (all competitions):

Team News

St Mirren's Marcus Fraser pictured on November 9, 2024 © Imago

Queen of the South have deployed the same starting XI in each of their last two league outings, and they could be unchanged again at the weekend in a 3-5-2 setup.

Adam Brooks and Brennan Dickenson should continue in attack, with no player in the squad having managed than four goals across all competitions this term, while joint-top scorer Kieran McKechnie will hope to return from the outset on the right-hand side.

Matty Douglas and Mikey Hewitt are mainstays and will continue in a back three alongside Middlesbrough loanee Jack Hannah.

St Mirren are set to remain without Charles Dunne and Conor McMenamin for Saturday's cup tie due to ongoing injury issues.

After being reduced to a substitute appearance against Dundee United last time out, Toyosi Olusanya should come back in and lead the attack, having netted a team-high tally of eight goals so far this season.

Caolan Boyd-Munce could be afforded an opportunity in midfield from the start, while Alex Iacovitti, Marcus Fraser and Richard Taylor should continue in a back three.

Queen of the South possible starting lineup:
Stewart; Hewitt, Douglas, Hannah; Doherty, Luissint, Cochrane, Lyon, MacIntyre; Brooks, Dickenson

St Mirren possible starting lineup:
Hemming; Fraser, Iacovitti, Taylor; Bwomono, Boyd-Munce, O'Hara, Tanser; Mooney, Olusanya, Kiltie

SM words green background

We say: Queen of the South 0-2 St Mirren

Despite their recent Scottish Premiership struggles, St Morren should have the quality to get past their third-tier hosts on Saturday and book their fifth-round spot.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a win with a probability of 44.24%. A win for has a probability of 30.93% and a draw has a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest win is 1-0 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.7%).