Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alcorcon win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 30.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alcorcon win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.58%) and 2-1 (7.19%). The likeliest Lugo win was 0-1 (12.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alcorcon in this match.