With the race for Champions League football in the Bundesliga heating up, a win for fifth-placed hosts Stuttgart against Wolfsburg on Saturday at MHPArena could keep them within touching distance of the top four.
Stuttgart's 2-1 victory against Borussia Dortmund in the league on February 8 means they come into this weekend with 35 points, one from fourth-placed RB Leipzig, while Wolfsburg are five points and four places behind in ninth.
Match preview
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The hosts had to withstand significant pressure against Dortmund considering they faced 10 shots from inside the box and accumulated just 32% possession, but BVB only created one big chance while the victors produced four shots and were ruthless in front of goal.
However, Stuttgart fans may be alarmed by the rate their team have been conceding in recent weeks given they have been pegged back nine times in their last five games, whereas they had conceded nine in their prior 10.
Boss Sebastian Hoeness's side are currently on track to score 63 goals in the Bundesliga in 2024-25, 15 fewer than the total they managed last term when they finished second behind Bayer Leverkusen.
Die Roten currently occupy the division's Europa League qualification spot, but just five points separate them from 10th-placed Werder Bremen, and it should be noted that their final league game of the season will come against RB Leipzig in May.
Stuttgart's overall form is mixed considering they have won two and lost three of their last five, and while they also lost two of their past three league matches, they have won seven and drawn one of their last 11 in the Bundesliga.
Hoeness's team boast a strong record at home given they have only suffered three defeats in the top flight at MHPArena in 23 outings, though all three came in their seven most recent games at home, with the club winning the other four in that time.
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Meanwhile, the visitors managed to hold champions Bayer Leverkusen to a 0-0 stalemate on February 8, limiting them to just two big chances and one shot on target, while Wolfsburg produced eight shots on target and hit the woodwork.
The Wolves' draw was the first time they were prevented from scoring in 15 matches, with the team finding the back of the net 10 times in their previous four games.
Head coach Ralph Hasenhuttl's side drew 2-2 with Stuttgart on September 28 in the league, though the Austrian boss will feel disappointed with the result given they took the lead twice but conceded a 97th-minute equaliser despite Die Roten playing with 10 men from the 63rd minute.
Wolfsburg are winless in their four most recent fixtures, drawing their last three, and they have in fact triumphed in just two of their past eight while conceding 14 goals in that period.
Though Hasenhuttl might be concerned that his team have lost two, drawn one and won just one of their last four away matches, two of those defeats came against Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen, and the visitors have won six and drawn two of their 11 fixtures on the road in 2024-25.
Team News
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Most of Stuttgart's injured stars are expected to return by the end of March at the latest, but Saturday's game will still come too early for defender Dan-Axel Zagadou, while Ameen Al Dakhil is a doubt.
Josha Vagnoman, Julian Chabot, Ramon Hendriks and Maximilian Mittelstadt are likely to appear in the backline, but forwards El Bilal Toure, Jacob Bruun Larsen and Justin Diehl could miss out.
Striker Deniz Undav has regularly been selected as part of a front two, and he may be joined in attack by Nick Woltemade.
Wolfsburg come into the clash without numerous players, including suspended defender Joakim Maehle, as well as Rogerio and Mads Roerslev.
Given goalkeepers Kamil Grabara and Niklas Klinger are also set to miss out, Hasenhuttl could name field a back four of Kilian Fischer, Denis Vavro, Sebastiaan Bornauw and Konstantinos Koulierakis in front of Marius Muller.
Attackers Bartosz Bialek, Jonas Wind, Kevin Paredes, Lovro Majer and Lukas Nmecha will also not be in the XI due to injury, so expect Mohamed El Amine Amoura to be partnered by Kevin Behrens.
Mattias Svanberg and Yannick Gerhardt are two probable candidates to appear in a double pivot in light of Maximilian Arnold's injury.
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Vagnoman, Chabot, Hendriks, Mittelstadt; Millot, Karazor, Stiller, Fuhrich; Undav, Woltemade
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Fischer, Vavro, Bornauw, Koulierakis; Tomas, Svanberg, Gerhardt, Wimmer; Behrens, Amoura
We say: Stuttgart 2-1 Wolfsburg
Stuttgart will look to take advantage of Wolfsburg's vulnerable defence, and it is difficult to see the visitors keeping their hosts at bay.
The Wolves have also struggled for wins in recent weeks, and though Die Roten are in mixed form themselves, they should be considered favourites given their strong home record.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
