MX23RW : Wednesday, December 18 08:28:40| >> :600:2820490:2820490:
Benfica
Taca da Liga | Group Stage
Dec 21, 2023 at 8.15pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica
4 - 1
AVS

di Maria (31'), Mario (44'), Gouveia (65'), Correia (68' og.)
Silva (54')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Mercado (21')
Lopes (51'), Correia (55'), Ricardo (62'), Alaba (87'), Clayton (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Taca da Liga clash between Benfica and AVS, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions
Taca da Liga
Last Game: Braga 0-1 Benfica
Sunday, December 17 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

AVS

All competitions
Taca da Liga
Last Game: Dumiense 1-0 AVS
Sunday, October 22 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal

We said: Benfica 2-0 AVS

 With both sides likely to rotate heavily, it could be quite a low-key affair, with the visitors set to focus on their promotion push from the second tier. The task is rather straightforward for Benfica, all they have to do is avoid a two-goal defeat, but they should stroll to a relatively comfortable victory here on home soil. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 79.4%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for AVS had a probability of 7.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.91%), while for an AVS win it was 1-2 (2.38%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
BenficaDrawAVS
79.4% (-0.090999999999994 -0.09) 12.88% (0.048999999999999 0.05) 7.71% (0.048 0.05)
Both teams to score 52.12% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.79% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)29.21% (0.077000000000002 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
49.77% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)50.23% (0.093999999999994 0.09)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.25% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)5.75% (0.032 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
77.83% (-0.087000000000003 -0.09)22.17% (0.093 0.09)
AVS Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.3% (0.054000000000002 0.05)44.7% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.31% (0.044 0.04)80.69% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Benfica 79.4%
    AVS 7.71%
    Draw 12.88%
BenficaDrawAVS
2-0 @ 10.48% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-0 @ 9.98% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.44% (0.016 0.02)
3-1 @ 8.04%
1-0 @ 7.34% (0.019 0.02)
4-0 @ 7.13% (-0.024 -0.02)
4-1 @ 5.74% (-0.011 -0.01)
5-0 @ 4.07% (-0.021 -0.02)
5-1 @ 3.28% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.24% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 2.31% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
6-0 @ 1.94% (-0.014 -0.01)
6-1 @ 1.56% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-2 @ 1.32% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 4.56%
Total : 79.4%
1-1 @ 5.91% (0.023 0.02)
2-2 @ 3.4% (0.011 0.01)
0-0 @ 2.57% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 1.01%
Total : 12.88%
1-2 @ 2.38% (0.013 0.01)
0-1 @ 2.07% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 0.91% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 7.71%

How you voted: Benfica vs AVS

Benfica
84.8%
Draw
9.1%
AVS
6.1%
33
rhs 2.0
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