Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 46.82%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.88%), while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.