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Women's Super League | Gameweek 18
Apr 19, 2023 at 7.15pm UK
 

Man Utd Women
1 - 0
Arsenal Women

Russo (45+6')
Zelem (34'), Ladd (45+3'), Batlle (85'), Blundell (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Queiroz (45')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Women's Super League clash between Manchester United Women and Arsenal Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Manchester United Women 2-1 Arsenal Women

Man United have proven to be a tough team to beat on home turf, winning eight of their last nine competitive home matches. After winning the reverse fixture 3-2 in November, we think that the Red Devils will make full use of home advantage to claim another narrow victory over Arsenal on Wednesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Women win with a probability of 46.38%. A win for Arsenal Women had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.63%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Arsenal Women win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United Women would win this match.

Result
Manchester United WomenDrawArsenal Women
46.38% (0.402 0.4) 23.27% (0.321 0.32) 30.34% (-0.727 -0.73)
Both teams to score 61.9% (-1.599 -1.6)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.63% (-1.926 -1.93)39.37% (1.922 1.92)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.29% (-2.041 -2.04)61.71% (2.039 2.04)
Manchester United Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.7% (-0.593 -0.59)17.3% (0.59 0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.34% (-1.049 -1.05)47.66% (1.045 1.05)
Arsenal Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.85% (-1.39 -1.39)25.15% (1.387 1.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.14% (-1.956 -1.96)59.86% (1.953 1.95)
Score Analysis
    Manchester United Women 46.38%
    Arsenal Women 30.34%
    Draw 23.27%
Manchester United WomenDrawArsenal Women
2-1 @ 9.24% (0.11 0.11)
1-0 @ 7.63% (0.529 0.53)
2-0 @ 6.7% (0.34 0.34)
3-1 @ 5.41% (-0.040999999999999 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.92% (0.125 0.13)
3-2 @ 3.73% (-0.183 -0.18)
4-1 @ 2.37% (-0.065 -0.07)
4-0 @ 1.72% (0.022 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.64% (-0.114 -0.11)
Other @ 4.04%
Total : 46.38%
1-1 @ 10.53% (0.33 0.33)
2-2 @ 6.38% (-0.183 -0.18)
0-0 @ 4.35% (0.38 0.38)
3-3 @ 1.72% (-0.158 -0.16)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.27%
1-2 @ 7.27% (-0.063000000000001 -0.06)
0-1 @ 6.01% (0.3 0.3)
0-2 @ 4.15% (0.045 0.04)
1-3 @ 3.35% (-0.167 -0.17)
2-3 @ 2.94% (-0.208 -0.21)
0-3 @ 1.91% (-0.056 -0.06)
1-4 @ 1.16% (-0.108 -0.11)
2-4 @ 1.01% (-0.117 -0.12)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 30.34%

How you voted: Man Utd Women vs Arsenal Women

Manchester United Women
68.8%
Draw
18.8%
Arsenal Women
12.5%
16
Head to Head
Nov 19, 2022 5.30pm
Feb 5, 2022 12.30pm
Nov 21, 2021 12.15pm
Mar 19, 2021 6.30pm
Arsenal Women
2-0
Man Utd Women
Turner (3' og.), Wubben-Moy (51')
McCabe (31'), Mead (52'), Walti (79')
Mead (62')
Nov 8, 2020 2.30pm
rhs 2.0
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