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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 78.96%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 8.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.09%) and 2-1 (8.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.58%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-2 (2.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
78.96% ( -0.28) | 12.73% ( 0.27) | 8.32% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 56.37% ( -1.33) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.22% ( -1.48) | 25.78% ( 1.49) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
54.07% ( -1.94) | 45.93% ( 1.94) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.86% ( -0.33) | 5.14% ( 0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
79.6% ( -1.01) | 20.4% ( 1.01) |
Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.42% ( -1.19) | 40.58% ( 1.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.83% ( -1.09) | 77.17% ( 1.1) |
Score Analysis |
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
2-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.47) 3-0 @ 9.09% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.45) 4-1 @ 6.08% ( -0.16) 5-0 @ 4% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.13) 5-1 @ 3.61% ( -0.18) 4-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.16) 6-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.08) 6-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.13) 5-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.14) Other @ 5.73% Total : 78.96% | 1-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.19) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.21% Total : 12.73% | 1-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.79% Total : 8.32% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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