Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 56.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 21.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Celta Vigo win it was 1-2 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Celta Vigo |
56.19% ( -0.07) | 22.37% ( 0.07) | 21.43% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 55.95% ( -0.24) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.83% ( -0.32) | 43.16% ( 0.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.43% ( -0.31) | 65.56% ( 0.31) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.8% ( -0.13) | 15.19% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.18% ( -0.25) | 43.82% ( 0.25) |
Celta Vigo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.97% ( -0.18) | 34.02% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.29% ( -0.2) | 70.7% ( 0.2) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Celta Vigo |
2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 9.18% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 5.76% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2.72% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.71% Total : 56.19% | 1-1 @ 10.5% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.17% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.37% | 1-2 @ 5.66% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.57% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 3% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0) Other @ 2.16% Total : 21.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 34 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 74 | 22 | 52 | 87 |
2 | GironaGirona | 35 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 75 | 44 | 31 | 75 |
3 | Barcelona | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 73 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 34 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 63 | 39 | 24 | 67 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 61 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 35 | 13 | 54 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 34 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 52 |
8 | Valencia | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 43 |
11 | AlavesAlaves | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 42 |
12 | Sevilla | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 39 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 37 |
15 | Celta Vigo | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 34 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 34 |
17 | Mallorca | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 32 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 34 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 26 |
R | Granada | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 34 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |