Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 56.72%. A win for West Ham United had a probability of 22.15% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8%) and 1-0 (7.78%). The likeliest West Ham United win was 1-2 (5.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Newcastle United | Draw | West Ham United |
56.72% ( 0.11) | 21.13% ( -0.04) | 22.15% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 61.41% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.55% ( 0.1) | 36.45% ( -0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.41% ( 0.11) | 58.59% ( -0.11) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.22% ( 0.07) | 12.78% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.92% ( 0.14) | 39.08% ( -0.14) |
West Ham United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.41% ( -0) | 29.59% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.38% ( -0) | 65.62% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle United | Draw | West Ham United |
2-1 @ 9.75% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.68% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.44% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.41% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.03% Total : 56.72% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.93% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.78% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.65% ( 0) Other @ 0.29% Total : 21.13% | 1-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.61% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.41% 1-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.08% Total : 22.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 82 | 26 | 56 | 77 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 33 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 80 | 32 | 48 | 76 |
3 | Liverpool | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 75 | 34 | 41 | 74 |
4 | Aston Villa | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 66 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 65 | 49 | 16 | 60 |
6 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 53 |
7 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 69 | 54 | 15 | 50 |
8 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 63 | -9 | 48 |
9 | Chelsea | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 61 | 57 | 4 | 47 |
10 | Bournemouth | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 45 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 44 |
12 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 43 |
13 | Fulham | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 42 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 39 |
15 | Brentford | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 35 |
16 | Everton | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 33 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 60 | -18 | 26 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 47 | 75 | -28 | 25 |
19 | Burnley | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 23 |
20 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 34 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 33 | 92 | -59 | 16 |
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