Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 47.49%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 29.17% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.01%) and 0-2 (7.03%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.