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Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Newcastle Jets
Perth Glory
Sydney FC
Wellington Phoenix
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western United
Adelaide United
Australian A-League
May 5, 2023 at 10.45am UK
Coopers Stadium
Wellington Phoenix

Adelaide United
2 - 0
Wellington

Goodwin (19', 67' pen.)
Kitto (34'), Halloran (85'), Alagich (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Sasse (80'), Kraev (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Adelaide United and Wellington Phoenix, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Adelaide United

All competitions
Last Game: Adelaide United 1-4 Central Coast
Friday, April 28 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions
Last Game: Macarthur 0-1 Wellington
Saturday, April 29 at 8am in Australian A-League

We said: Adelaide United 3-2 Wellington Phoenix

 These two sides posted the worst defensive records in the top six, shipping 91 goals between them throughout the regular season, and with plenty of attacking talent for both teams, that could result in a high-scoring affair. The presence of Zawada in particular will make Wellington believe that they can pull off an upset, but they are underdogs for a reason and we are backing Adelaide to just about come out on top and progress to the semi-finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 53.3%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 24.6% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.

Result
Adelaide UnitedDrawWellington Phoenix
53.3%22.09%24.6%
Both teams to score 61.12%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.76%38.24%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.48%60.51%
Adelaide United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.56%14.44%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.62%42.38%
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.43%28.57%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.64%64.36%
Score Analysis
    Adelaide United 53.3%
    Wellington Phoenix 24.6%
    Draw 22.09%
Adelaide UnitedDrawWellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 9.68%
1-0 @ 7.98%
2-0 @ 7.72%
3-1 @ 6.24%
3-0 @ 4.98%
3-2 @ 3.91%
4-1 @ 3.02%
4-0 @ 2.41%
4-2 @ 1.89%
5-1 @ 1.17%
5-0 @ 0.93%
Other @ 3.35%
Total : 53.3%
1-1 @ 10%
2-2 @ 6.06%
0-0 @ 4.12%
3-3 @ 1.63%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 22.09%
1-2 @ 6.27%
0-1 @ 5.17%
0-2 @ 3.24%
1-3 @ 2.62%
2-3 @ 2.53%
0-3 @ 1.35%
Other @ 3.43%
Total : 24.6%

How you voted: Adelaide United vs Wellington

Adelaide United
85.0%
Draw
10.0%
Wellington Phoenix
5.0%
40
Head to Head
Mar 17, 2023 8.45am
gameweek 21
Adelaide United
5-1
Wellington
Wootton (16' og.), Jovanovic (23'), Barr (51'), Ibusuki (62'), Goodwin (71')
Barr (81')
Rufer (54' pen.)
Mauragis (23'), Elliot (33')
Dec 17, 2022 2am
gameweek 8
Wellington
3-1
Adelaide United
Zawada (2'), Kraev (37'), Sasse (61')
Goodwin (12')
Halloran (26')
Oct 9, 2022 3am
gameweek 1
Wellington
1-1
Adelaide United
Waine (75')
Sasse (25')
Halloran (90+3')
Feb 12, 2022 5.50am
gameweek 14
Wellington
1-1
Adelaide United
Sandoval (20')
Sail (90')
Oliveira (90+2')
Jakobsen (23')
Jan 1, 2022 8.45am
gameweek 7
Adelaide United
4-0
Wellington
Blackwood (7'), Goodwin (54' pen., 69' pen.), Lopez (80')
Sanchez (48'), Kitto (58'), Tratt (75'), Mauk (87'), Lopez (90+1')

Waine (29'), Lewis (46'), (48'), Pennington (73')
rhs 2.0
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