Australian A-League | Gameweek 18

Feb 26, 2023 at 4am UK

AAMI Park

Victory
1 - 1
Adelaide United

Fornaroli (81' pen.)

FT(HT: 0-0)

Irankunda (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 3-2 Melbourne City
Saturday, February 18 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Adelaide United

All competitions

Last Game: Adelaide United 4-4 Western Sydney
Sunday, February 19 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 56.79%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 21.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.45%) and 1-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Adelaide United
56.79% ( 0.21)	21.48% ( -0.17)	21.72% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 59.49% (

0.52)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.31% (

0.72)

38.69% (

-0.73)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39% (

0.76)

60.99% (

-0.76)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.5% (

0.3)

13.49% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.47% (

0.61)

40.52% (

-0.61)

Adelaide United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.77% (

0.36)

31.23% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.42% (

0.42)

67.57% (

-0.42)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 56.8%

Adelaide United 21.72%

Draw 21.48%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Adelaide United
2-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.45% ( -0.1) 1-0 @ 8.44% ( -0.2) 3-1 @ 6.57% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 5.64% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 3.29% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.83% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.56% Total : 56.8%	1-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 4.21% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.48%	1-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.7% Total : 21.72%