Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 29.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 0-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
Result | ||
Adelaide United | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
44.54% ( 0.27) | 25.89% ( -0.1) | 29.57% ( -0.17) |
Both teams to score 52.55% ( 0.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.58% ( 0.32) | 51.42% ( -0.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.77% ( 0.27) | 73.23% ( -0.28) |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.99% ( 0.26) | 23.01% ( -0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.18% ( 0.39) | 56.81% ( -0.39) |
Brisbane Roar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.26% ( 0.04) | 31.74% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.83% ( 0.04) | 68.17% ( -0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Adelaide United | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
1-0 @ 10.73% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.88% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.42% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.06% Total : 44.54% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.3% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.89% | 0-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.07% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.7% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.79% Total : 29.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
5 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
6 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 |
7 | Macarthur | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 11 |
8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 9 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
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