Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.92%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
32.49% ( -0.25) | 24.87% ( -0.37) | 42.64% ( 0.63) |
Both teams to score 57.3% ( 1.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.14% ( 1.58) | 45.86% ( -1.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.83% ( 1.49) | 68.17% ( -1.48) |
Newcastle Jets Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.02% ( 0.61) | 26.98% ( -0.61) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.68% ( 0.79) | 62.33% ( -0.78) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.48% ( 0.98) | 21.53% ( -0.97) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.41% ( 1.48) | 54.59% ( -1.47) |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
2-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.61% ( -0.38) 2-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.16) 3-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.07% Total : 32.49% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( -0.4) 3-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.86% | 1-2 @ 8.97% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.34) 0-2 @ 6.85% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 4.6% ( 0.17) 0-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.16) 1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0.12) 0-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.07) 2-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.52% Total : 42.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
5 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
6 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 |
7 | Macarthur | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 11 |
8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 9 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
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