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Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League | Gameweek 11
Jan 6, 2023 at 8.45am UK
AAMI Park
Brisbane Roar

Victory
0 - 1
Brisbane Roar

FT(HT: 0-0)
O'Shea (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Last Game: Central Coast 2-1 Victory
Saturday, December 31 at 8am in Australian A-League

Brisbane Roar

All competitions
Last Game: Western Utd 1-1 Brisbane Roar
Friday, December 30 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 39.15%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 35.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawBrisbane Roar
39.15% (0.1 0.1)25.63% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)35.22% (-0.098999999999997 -0.1)
Both teams to score 55.38% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.35% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)48.65%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)70.76% (0.00099999999999056 0)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.52% (0.051000000000002 0.05)24.47% (-0.053999999999998 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.07% (0.071000000000005 0.07)58.92% (-0.073 -0.07)
Brisbane Roar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.33% (-0.057999999999993 -0.06)26.66% (0.056000000000001 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.08% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)61.91% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 39.15%
    Brisbane Roar 35.22%
    Draw 25.63%
Melbourne VictoryDrawBrisbane Roar
1-0 @ 9.19% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.55% (0.012 0.01)
2-0 @ 6.47% (0.02 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.01% (0.012 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.03% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.65% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.41% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.07% (0.006 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.93% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.85%
Total : 39.15%
1-1 @ 12.14%
0-0 @ 6.53%
2-2 @ 5.65% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 1.17% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.63%
0-1 @ 8.63% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.03% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.7% (-0.019 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.54% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.51% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.49% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 1.17% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 35.22%

How you voted: Victory vs Brisbane Roar

Melbourne Victory
42.5%
Draw
30.0%
Brisbane Roar
27.5%
40
Head to Head
Oct 29, 2022 5am
Brisbane Roar
0-0
Victory

Trewin (15')
Apr 25, 2022 5.05am
Brisbane Roar
1-1
Victory
Parsons (54')
Parsons (44'), Akbari (47'), O'Shea (90')
Hamill (68')
Ikonomidis (32'), Brillante (84')
Apr 12, 2022 10.05am
Victory
0-0
Brisbane Roar

Marchan (44'), Broxham (83')

Olsen (32'), Holmes (87')
Nov 28, 2021 5.05am
Victory
3-0
Brisbane Roar
Trewin (28' og.), D'Agostino (32'), Folami (50')
Brillante (15'), Broxham (78'), Brimmer (81')

O'Shea (24'), Brown (83'), Daley (90')
Feb 6, 2021 6.05am
Brisbane Roar
5-2
Victory
Wenzel-Halls (9'), McDonald (14', 35'), Danzaki (17', 49')
Brown (45+3'), Gillesphey (83')
Lawrie-Lattanzio (19'), Brimmer (45+5')
Lawrie-Lattanzio (33'), Broxham (43'), Shotton (79'), Kirdar (86')