Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 51.38%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 25.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.46%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
Result | ||
Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
25.78% ( -0.73) | 22.83% ( -0.12) | 51.38% ( 0.85) |
Both teams to score 59.77% ( -0.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.42% ( -0.06) | 40.57% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.04% ( -0.07) | 62.95% ( 0.07) |
Macarthur Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.09% ( -0.58) | 28.91% ( 0.58) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.21% ( -0.72) | 64.79% ( 0.72) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.08% ( 0.28) | 15.91% ( -0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.84% ( 0.51) | 45.16% ( -0.51) |
Score Analysis |
Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
2-1 @ 6.51% ( -0.13) 1-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.39% Total : 25.78% | 1-1 @ 10.49% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.83% | 1-2 @ 9.64% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 7.77% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 5.91% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 4.76% ( 0.15) 2-3 @ 3.67% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.72% ( 0.07) 0-4 @ 2.19% ( 0.09) 2-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.59% Total : 51.38% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
2 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 11 |
4 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
5 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
7 | Macarthur | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 7 |
8 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 7 |
9 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
10 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 2 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 1 |
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