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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Egypt national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 8, 2023 at 5pm UK
Cairo International Stadium
Ethiopia national football team

Egypt
1 - 0
Ethiopia

Fathi (37')
Mohamed (55'), El Shenawy (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Panomo (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Egypt and Ethiopia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Egypt

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Egypt 3-0 South Sudan
Sunday, June 18 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Ethiopia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Ethiopia 2-0 Guyana
Thursday, August 3 at 12am in International Friendlies

We said: Egypt 3-0 Ethiopia

 Egypt head into the weekend as one of the most in-form sides in the qualifiers and will be looking to extend their dominant run against the Wali Ibex. Ethiopia's form on the road also makes Vitoria's men firm on favourites to come out on top and we are backing them to pick up a comfortable victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 74.97%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 7.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.16%) and 3-0 (11.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Egypt would win this match.

Result
EgyptDrawEthiopia
74.97% (0.091999999999999 0.09) 17.04% (-0.068000000000001 -0.07) 7.99% (-0.023 -0.02)
Both teams to score 37.71% (0.104 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.47% (0.208 0.21)48.52% (-0.208 -0.21)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.35% (0.188 0.19)70.65% (-0.188 -0.19)
Egypt Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.7% (0.082000000000008 0.08)11.3% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.07% (0.17899999999999 0.18)35.93% (-0.178 -0.18)
Ethiopia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
42.51% (0.079000000000001 0.08)57.49% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
10.68% (0.042 0.04)89.31% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Egypt 74.96%
    Ethiopia 7.99%
    Draw 17.04%
EgyptDrawEthiopia
2-0 @ 15.44% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
1-0 @ 14.16% (-0.07 -0.07)
3-0 @ 11.22% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 8.55% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.21% (0.024 0.02)
4-0 @ 6.12% (0.029 0.03)
4-1 @ 3.39% (0.024 0.02)
5-0 @ 2.67% (0.021 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.72% (0.011 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.48% (0.016 0.02)
6-0 @ 0.97% (0.011 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.94% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 74.96%
1-1 @ 7.84% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
0-0 @ 6.49% (-0.056 -0.06)
2-2 @ 2.37% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 17.04%
0-1 @ 3.6% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-2 @ 2.17% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-2 @ 1% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 1.23%
Total : 7.99%

Head to Head
Jun 9, 2022 5pm
Group Stage
Ethiopia
2-0
Egypt
Hotessa (21'), Bekele (39')
Panomo (24'), Debebe (90+1')

Mostafa Lasheen (56'), Kamal (75'), (77')
> Preview
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