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Asian Cup
Qatar national football team
Asian Cup | Quarter-Finals
Feb 3, 2024 at 3.30pm UK
Al Bayt Stadium
Uzbekistan national football team

Qatar
1 - 1
Uzbekistan

Al Heidos (27')
Barsham (46'), Muneer (89'), Ali (90+1'), Ro-Ro (105')
FT
(aet)
Khamrobekov (59')
Katanec (47'), Shukurov (69'), Ashurmatov (90')
Qatar win 3-2 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Asian Cup clash between Qatar and Uzbekistan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qatar

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Qatar 2-1 Palestine
Monday, January 29 at 4pm in Asian Cup

Uzbekistan

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Uzbekistan 2-1 Thailand
Tuesday, January 30 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

We say: Qatar 1-2 Uzbekistan (extra-time)

 The smart money may be on Qatar, given their record in these knockout fixtures, but they have been put under duress quite a bit at this tournament. That, along with the overall quality and resilience of their opponents, is why we are giving Uzbekistan a slight edge, as they have shown plenty of consistency and poise under pressure. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 44.32%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Qatar had a probability of 27.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.76%) and 1-2 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a Qatar win it was 1-0 (9.94%).

Result
QatarDrawUzbekistan
27.67% (-1.337 -1.34) 28.01% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 44.32% (1.343 1.34)
Both teams to score 45.31% (-0.717 -0.72)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.82% (-0.542 -0.54)60.18% (0.539 0.54)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.62% (-0.414 -0.41)80.38% (0.411 0.41)
Qatar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.11% (-1.378 -1.38)37.89% (1.375 1.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.34% (-1.361 -1.36)74.66% (1.359 1.36)
Uzbekistan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.96% (0.452 0.45)27.04% (-0.456 -0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.59% (0.587 0.59)62.41% (-0.591 -0.59)
Score Analysis
    Qatar 27.67%
    Uzbekistan 44.32%
    Draw 28%
QatarDrawUzbekistan
1-0 @ 9.94% (-0.167 -0.17)
2-1 @ 6.31% (-0.268 -0.27)
2-0 @ 4.83% (-0.27 -0.27)
3-1 @ 2.04% (-0.168 -0.17)
3-0 @ 1.56% (-0.15 -0.15)
3-2 @ 1.34% (-0.091 -0.09)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 27.67%
1-1 @ 13% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 10.24% (0.2 0.2)
2-2 @ 4.13% (-0.121 -0.12)
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 28%
0-1 @ 13.4% (0.44 0.44)
0-2 @ 8.76% (0.394 0.39)
1-2 @ 8.5% (0.072000000000001 0.07)
0-3 @ 3.82% (0.218 0.22)
1-3 @ 3.71% (0.079 0.08)
2-3 @ 1.8% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-4 @ 1.25% (0.086 0.09)
1-4 @ 1.21% (0.041 0.04)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 44.32%

How you voted: Winner Match 40 vs Winner Match 41

Winner Match 40
49.0%
Draw
25.5%
Winner Match 41
25.5%
51
Head to Head
Oct 16, 2018 3pm
International Friendlies
Uzbekistan
2-0
Qatar
Akhmedov (73'), Bikmaev (86')
Alibaev (79')

Ali (22'), Hatem (57')
rhs 2.0
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