Avoiding defeat will be enough for in-form Aston Villa to progress in the Europa Conference League on Thursday evening, when Legia Warsaw arrive at Villa Park aiming to seal their own place in the knockout phase.
Both sides will at least go through to the playoffs with either a win or a draw from their penultimate Group E fixture, but victory could send either straight into the last 16.
Match preview
© Reuters
Completing the double over their Dutch counterparts, Aston Villa beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1 last time out in Europe, putting themselves within a whisker of extending their stay in continental competition until 2024.
After defeat in Warsaw saw the Premier League club's Group E campaign start on the wrong foot, a last-gasp home win over Zrinjski was then followed by back-to-back victories over AZ: a convincing 4-1 success in Alkmaar, then a far closer encounter back at Villa Park.
Once Vangelis Pavlidis had put their visitors ahead early in the second half, the Villans were sufficiently stirred to fight back, and goals from Diego Carlos and ever-reliable England striker Ollie Watkins secured maximum points. As a result, Unai Emery's men will be confirmed in the top two if they avoid defeat this week - or even should they lose and Zrinsjki do not beat AZ.
Wrapping things up neatly before their final game in Bosnia - and saving themselves the jeopardy of a playoff to reach the last 16 - victory by two goals or more would secure top spot, continuing Villa's upward trajectory under UEFA competition specialist Emery.
Following Sunday's win at fellow top-five contenders Tottenham Hotspur, in which Watkins and Pau Torres struck to overturn a one-goal deficit, they moved into the Premier League's top four, having lost only one of their last 10 games in all competitions.
A tally of eight wins during that time tells the tale of a team becoming accustomed to life in the upper echelons, and having made Villa Park a fortress over the past few months, they now welcome their main rivals for Group E supremacy to Birmingham.
© Reuters
Since memorably beating Aston Villa 3-2 at home on the opening matchday, partly thanks to Ernest Muci's brace, Legia Warsaw have gone on to pick up a further six points and now top the group by virtue of their head-to-head record against the English side.
After dispatching Zrinjski earlier this month, Legia will be confirmed in the top two if they steer clear of defeat this week - or even if they lose and AZ fail to beat the Bosnians.
Doing the double over Villa, though, would ensure Kosta Runjaic's side take top spot, with the incentive of avoiding a playoff with one of eight Europa League drop-outs and qualifying directly for the Conference League's last 16.
Following a worrying downturn featuring five defeats in six games, the Legionisci have recently rallied and will arrive at Villa Park on a five-match unbeaten run, having kept no fewer than four clean sheets in the process.
In fact, the only time their defence has been breached throughout November was in Saturday's 2-2 draw with Warta Poznan, when Josue and Muci were on hand to dig their team out of a hole after they trailed by two goals heading into first-half stoppage time.
Sitting sixth in the Ekstraklasa, Legia are unlikely to get back into the Polish title race this season, but a deep run in European competition could be on the cards if they can edge over the line in Group F, either on Thursday or in next month's finale at home to AZ.
Team News
© Reuters
Likely to make a handful of changes to the Aston Villa side that saw off Spurs, Unai Emery may promote Youri Tielemans to his starting XI on Thursday, while Leon Bailey, Robin Olsen and Jacob Ramsey are also in contention.
Long-term absentees Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendia remain on the long road to recovery from knee injuries, but with Alex Moreno finally back in the fold, Emery should otherwise have a full squad to choose from.
Having just celebrated his seventh league strike of the season, Ollie Watkins returns to a competition in which he has five from six games so far, but may start on the bench; Nicolo Zaniolo scored six times in the Europa Conference League for Roma - including the winner in the 2022 final - but has yet to do so while wearing claret and blue.
Legia Warsaw's attack will be led by Albania international Ernest Muci, who was named 'Man of the Match' against Warta Poznan last week and joins Czech striker Tomas Pekhart on four goals apiece in this season's Conference League (qualifying included).
The visitors have recently welcomed back both ex-Leicester City midfielder Bartosz Kapustka and young Filip Rejczyk to full training, though neither is set to start in midweek.
French centre-back Steve Kapuadi returns from suspension after missing Saturday's 2-2 draw, so should slot straight into the heart of Legia's defence.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Olsen; Cash, Konsa, Lenglet, Digne; McGinn, Kamara, Tielemans, Bailey; Diaby, Duran
Legia Warsaw possible starting lineup:
Tobiasz; Pankov, Jedrzejczyk, Kapuadi; Wszolek, Slisz, Elitim, Dias; Josue, Muci; Pekhart
We say: Aston Villa 2-1 Legia Warsaw
Having just set a new club record for Premier League wins recorded in a calendar year, with their 22nd victory coming last time out against Tottenham, Aston Villa will be in the mood to cement their place in the Conference League's knockout rounds. Though Legia's forwards could trouble the hosts' notoriously high defensive line, Unai Emery's men can still claim maximum points.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Jonathan O'Shea
