Conference League | Group Stage
Nov 30, 2023 at 8pm UK
Villa Park
Aston Villa2 - 1Legia
The Match
Match Report
Alex Moreno scores the winner in his first match for six months as Aston Villa beat Legia Warsaw 2-1 in the Europa Conference League.
Team News
Unai Emery names a much-changed Aston Villa XI for Thursday's Europa Conference League tie with Legia Warsaw.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Aston Villa and Legia Warsaw, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Spurs 1-2 Aston Villa
Sunday, November 26 at 2pm in Premier League
Sunday, November 26 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Legia 2-2 Warta Poznan
Saturday, November 25 at 7pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
Saturday, November 25 at 7pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 57.29%. A win for Legia Warsaw had a probability of 21.56% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.27%) and 1-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Legia Warsaw win was 1-2 (5.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Legia Warsaw |
57.29% ( 8.78) | 21.14% ( -2.03) | 21.56% ( -6.75) |
| Both teams to score 60.49% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.73% ( 2.9) | 37.27% ( -2.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.52% ( 3.06) | 59.48% ( -3.06) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.11% ( 3.92) | 12.88% ( -3.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 60.71% ( 7.49) | 39.28% ( -7.49) |
| Legia Warsaw Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.44% ( -3.68) | 30.56% ( 3.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.21% ( -4.6) | 66.79% ( 4.6) |
| Score Analysis |
Aston Villa 57.29%
Legia Warsaw 21.57%
Draw 21.14%
| Aston Villa | Draw | Legia Warsaw |
| 2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.36) 2-0 @ 8.27% ( 1.08)1-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.69% ( 1.08)3-0 @ 5.65% ( 1.38)3-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.28)4-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.93)4-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.99)4-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.39)5-1 @ 1.41% ( 0.51)5-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.51)Other @ 3.9% Total : 57.29% | 1-1 @ 9.57% ( -1.02) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.39)0-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.58)3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.26% Total : 21.14% | 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -1.28) 0-1 @ 4.67% ( -1.27)0-2 @ 2.77% ( -1.13)2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.42)1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.81)0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.61)Other @ 2.83% Total : 21.57% |
How you voted: Aston Villa vs Legia
Aston Villa
80.0%Draw
11.1%Legia Warsaw
8.9%90
Head to Head
Form Guide
