MX23RW : Tuesday, January 21 10:39:20| >> :600:1430773:1430773:
Europa Conference League header WWW

UEFA Conference League
Conference League | Group Stage
Sep 21, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszalka Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Aston Villa logo

Legia
3 - 2
Aston Villa

Wszolek (3'), Muci (26', 51')
Kun (19'), Ribeiro (84'), Tobiasz (90+4')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Duran (6'), Digne (38')
Zaniolo (53'), Diaby (70')

The Match

Match Report

Tournament favourites Aston Villa suffer a shock 3-2 defeat to Legia Warsaw in the opening match of their Europa Conference League campaign.

Team News

Unai Emery makes five changes for Aston Villa's Europa Conference League fixture against Legia Warsaw on Thursday night.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Legia Warsaw and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Legia Warsaw

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia
Saturday, September 16 at 7pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Aston Villa

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Crystal Palace
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 51.45%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.52%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Legia Warsaw would win this match.

Result
Legia WarsawDrawAston Villa
51.45% (-0.098999999999997 -0.1) 22.21% (0.004999999999999 0) 26.33% (0.097999999999999 0.1)
Both teams to score 62.55% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.85% (0.067999999999998 0.07)37.15% (-0.064 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.65% (0.072000000000003 0.07)59.35% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07)
Legia Warsaw Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.33% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)14.66% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.18% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)42.82% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.3% (0.10600000000001 0.11)26.7% (-0.103 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.05% (0.139 0.14)61.95% (-0.136 -0.14)
Score Analysis
    Legia Warsaw 51.45%
    Aston Villa 26.33%
    Draw 22.21%
Legia WarsawDrawAston Villa
2-1 @ 9.53% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-0 @ 7.52% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-0 @ 7.21% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-1 @ 6.1% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.62% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-2 @ 4.03% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.93% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 2.22% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.93% (0.002 0)
5-1 @ 1.12% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 4.26%
Total : 51.45%
1-1 @ 9.93% (-0.0059999999999985 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.29% (0.012 0.01)
0-0 @ 3.92% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.77% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 22.21%
1-2 @ 6.55% (0.016 0.02)
0-1 @ 5.17% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 3.41% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.89% (0.015 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.77% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.5% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
1-4 @ 0.95% (0.008 0.01)
2-4 @ 0.91% (0.007 0.01)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 26.33%

How you voted: Legia vs Aston Villa

Legia Warsaw
14.1%
Draw
13.0%
Aston Villa
72.8%
92
rhs 2.0
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8Aston Villa2210663334-136
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> Premier League Full Table


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