Runaway Brasileiro leaders Botafogo will firmly expect to progress to the next stage of the Copa Sudamericana when they host Patronato on Wednesday.
The visitors, who are currently competing in the second tier of Argentinian football, were beaten 2-0 at home in last week's first leg.
Match preview
© Reuters
After defeating Bragantino 2-0 on Saturday to open up a 13-point gap at the summit of Brazil's top flight, it would take a monumental collapse for Botafogo not to win their first Serie A title since doing so for the second time in the club's history in 1995.
Fogo have bounced back from losing their head coach Luis Castro to Saudi side Al-Nassr earlier this month remarkably well so far, extending their winning streak in the league to six games, while moving closer to the quarter-final stage of the Copa Sudamericana.
Former Wolverhampton Wanderers boss Bruno Lage has been chosen as Castro's replacement, with the 47-year-old probably unable to believe his fortune in terms of the exceptional groundwork undertaken by his predecessor.
The 47-year-old should fit in well given how tight he likes to keep things defensively, with Botafogo remarkably winning 10 of their last 12 league games alongside keeping a clean sheet in all of those victories.
Lage's side can even afford to concede one goal and still progress to the last eight of the Copa Sudamericana on Wednesday, but they will be aiming to get the job done as professionally as possible.
Patronato, meanwhile, are rather bizarrely competing in continental football despite being relegated from Argentina's Primera Division last season.
Their qualification for the Copa Libertadores was earned after they defeated Talleres de Cordoba 1-0 to lift their first ever domestic cup last October, but they were unable to progress into the knockout stages of South America's primary tournament, falling into the Copa Sudamericana after finishing third in Group H.
Rojinegro turned to former Barracas Central boss Rodolfo de Paoli as their manager last month, and the 44-year-old has quickly turned Estadio Presbitero Bartolome Grella into a fortress by winning all three of his league games at home so far.
However, they were unable to keep their more illustrious Brazilian opponents at arm's length last week, and they now face an extremely uphill task to remain in this competition when they arrive in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday.
Team News
© Reuters
Botafogo will remain without Rafael da Silva, Matheus Nascimento, Jose Victor Sa, Patrick de Paula and Gabriel Pires due to injury.
Lage made several changes between defeating Patronato and Bragantino within 72 hours, and he may rely on the same side that defeated their Argentine opponents in the first leg.
Patronato, meanwhile, may turn to either Ignacio Russo or Alexander Sosa in attack after surprisingly leaving both strikers on the bench for last week's home defeat.
De Paoli used nominal central midfielder Jorge Valdez as a false nine, but this experiment clearly did not work as both Russo or Sosa were called upon by their manager during the contest.
Botafogo possible starting lineup:
Perri; Di Placido, Sampaio, Cuesta, Marcal; Danilo, Breno; Alberto, Eduardo, Santos; Janderson
Patronato possible starting lineup:
Budino; Geminiani, Domingo, Ojeda, Ghiraldello; Arce, Vazquez, Valdez; Novero, Russo, Esquivel
We say: Botafogo 2-0 Patronato (Botafogo to win 4-0 on aggregate)
Botafogo are enjoying a remarkable season even at this early stage of proceedings, with Lage's side in pole position to win their third domestic crown as well as progress to the last eight of the Copa Sudamericana.
Patronato appear unlikely to bounce back to Argentina's Primera Division at the first time of asking, and we can envisage them falling to another 2-0 defeat to crash out of South American football here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 62.68%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 13.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.06%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
