Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sport Recife win with a probability of 38.37%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 32.21% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sport Recife win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 0-1 (11.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.