We said: Burnley 3-1 Stoke City
Flying full-backs and a firing front line, a return to Turf Moor should help Burnley to recover from another last-minute equaliser conceded on the weekend.
Against a Stoke City side who were in disarray on Saturday, we expect the Clarets to get the job done reasonably comfortably.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 54.54%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 21.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.31%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Stoke City win it was 0-1 (6.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.