Championship | Gameweek 39
Apr 1, 2023 at 12.30pm UK
Kenilworth Road Stadium
Luton2 - 0Watford
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Sunderland 1-1 Luton
Saturday, March 18 at 3pm in Championship
Saturday, March 18 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Watford 1-1 Wigan
Saturday, March 18 at 3pm in Championship
Saturday, March 18 at 3pm in Championship
We said: Luton Town 2-1 Watford
This has all the makings of a highly-competitive game, particularly with Wilder having had the international break to work with his squad. Nevertheless, Luton are growing in confidence at Kenilworth Road, leading us to predict a narrow victory for the Hatters. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 48.77%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Watford had a probability of 24.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.55%) and 2-1 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.48%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Watford |
48.77% ( 0.78) | 26.57% ( -0.27) | 24.65% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 46.93% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.04% ( 0.58) | 56.96% ( -0.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.14% ( 0.46) | 77.86% ( -0.47) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.58% ( 0.61) | 23.42% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.59% ( 0.88) | 57.41% ( -0.89) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.28% ( -0.14) | 38.72% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.54% ( -0.14) | 75.45% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
Luton Town 48.77%
Watford 24.65%
Draw 26.57%
| Luton Town | Draw | Watford |
| 1-0 @ 13.16% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.13)2-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.08% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.63% Total : 48.77% | 1-1 @ 12.48% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 9.07% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.72% Total : 26.57% | 0-1 @ 8.6% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.52% Total : 24.65% |
How you voted: Luton vs Watford
Luton Town
76.5%Draw
5.9%Watford
17.6%34
