Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for Wuhan Three Towns had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Wuhan Three Towns win was 0-1 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shanghai Shenhua would win this match.