MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 14:32:35| >> :60:119:119:
Ecuador national football team
Copa America | Group Stage
Jun 22, 2024 at 11pm UK
Levi's Stadium
Venezuela national football team

Ecuador
1 - 2
Venezuela

Sarmiento (40')
Sarmiento (29'), Paez (45+1')
Valencia (22')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Cadiz (64'), Bello (74')
Machis (31'), Casseres Jr (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Copa America clash between Ecuador and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Honduras
Sunday, June 16 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies

Venezuela

All competitions
Last Game: Guatemala 0-0 Venezuela
Sunday, March 24 at 10pm in International Friendlies

We said: Ecuador 2-1 Venezuela

 There is not an awful lot to choose between these two sides, and we are expecting a close match on Saturday. It would not be a surprise to see a draw, but we are just backing Ecuador to have enough to navigate their way to a vital victory in their opening match of what is shaping up to be a fascinating competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 47.5%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 23.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.84%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (10.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.

Result
EcuadorDrawVenezuela
47.5% (0.084000000000003 0.08) 29.22% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01) 23.28% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)
Both teams to score 39.16% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
33.75% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)66.25% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
15.24% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)84.75% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.7% (0.040999999999997 0.04)28.29% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.98% (0.052999999999997 0.05)64.02% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)
Venezuela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.61% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)45.38% (0.07 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.76% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)81.24% (0.055999999999997 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 47.49%
    Venezuela 23.27%
    Draw 29.21%
EcuadorDrawVenezuela
1-0 @ 16.21% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 10.23% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 8.09% (0.0040000000000013 0)
3-0 @ 4.31% (0.016 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.4% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.36% (0.006 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.34%
4-1 @ 1.07% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 1.48%
Total : 47.49%
0-0 @ 12.84%
1-1 @ 12.8% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.19% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 29.21%
0-1 @ 10.14% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 5.06% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.01% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.33% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.06% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 23.27%

How you voted: Ecuador vs Venezuela

Ecuador
72.6%
Draw
16.3%
Venezuela
11.1%
135
Head to Head
Nov 16, 2023 10pm
Group Stage
Venezuela
0-0
Ecuador
Angel (9'), Andres Martinez (79')
Hincapie (12'), Cifuentes (31'), Franco (79')
> Preview
Nov 11, 2021 9pm
Group Stage
Ecuador
1-0
Venezuela
Hincapie (41')
Plata (22')

Ramirez (16'), Andres Martinez (25'), Martinez (45+2')
> Preview
Oct 10, 2021 9.30pm
Group Stage
Venezuela
2-1
Ecuador
Machis (45+1'), Bello (64')
Rincon (45+4'), Moreno (87'), Aristeguieta (90+4'), Andres Martinez (90+5')
Valencia (37' pen.)
Mena (62'), Torres (85')
> Preview
Jun 20, 2021 10pm
Group Stage
Venezuela
2-2
Ecuador
Castillo (51'), Hernandez (90+1')
Preciado (39'), Plata (71')
Valencia (21'), Preciado (45+3'), Caicedo (81')
> Preview
Jun 2, 2019 2am
International Friendlies
Venezuela
1-1
Ecuador
Rosales (38' pen.)
Herrera (32'), Figuera (35')
Valencia (91')
Chicaiza (7')
rhs 2.0
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