While Sportivo Ameliano came through the group stages with flying colours, their form since then has been dismal, particularly in attack, where they have failed to score in four of their last five games. Libertad have not been at their absolute best in recent weeks either, but their record against this opponent is hard to ignore, and we feel they will secure a first-leg lead in this tie fairly comfortably. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 58.7%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Sportivo Ameliano had a probability of 18.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.14%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Sportivo Ameliano win it was 0-1 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.

Result
Club Libertad	Draw	Sportivo Ameliano
58.7% ( -0.06)	23.1% ( 0.08)	18.2% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 48.4% (

-0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.4% (

-0.34)

50.6% (

0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.48% (

-0.3)

72.51% (

0.3)

Club Libertad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.06% (

-0.14)

16.94% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.99% (

-0.25)

47.01% (

0.25)

Sportivo Ameliano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.27% (

-0.22)

41.72% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.8% (

-0.19)

78.19% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Club Libertad 58.69%

Sportivo Ameliano 18.2%

Draw 23.09%

Club Libertad	Draw	Sportivo Ameliano
1-0 @ 12.54% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 11.14% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 6.59% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.93% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.84% Total : 58.69%	1-1 @ 10.96% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.81% Total : 23.09%	0-1 @ 6.18% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.7% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.9% Total : 18.2%

How you voted: Libertad vs Ameliano

Club Libertad

88.2%

Draw

11.8%

Sportivo Ameliano

0.0%

Form Guide

U. Catolica 1-1 Libertad

Libertad 2-0 U. Catolica

Libertad 2-1 Nacional

River Plate 2-0 Libertad

Tachira 1-1 Libertad

Libertad 1-2 River Plate

Athletico PR 0-1 Ameliano

Ameliano 1-0 Rayo Zuliano

Ameliano 2-1 Danubio

Rayo Zuliano 0-4 Ameliano

Danubio 0-0 Ameliano

Ameliano 1-4 Athletico PR

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Libertad
1 - 1
Ameliano