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EFL Cup
Bolton logo
EFL Cup | Second Round
Aug 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
Aston Villa logo

Bolton
1 - 4
Aston Villa

Charles (24')
Johnston (13'), Dixon (61'), Kachunga (62')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Luiz (36'), Ings (63' pen.), Digne (66'), Bailey (87')
Luiz (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Bolton Wanderers and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

Last Six:
Last Game: Bolton 0-2 Sheff Weds
Saturday, August 20 at 3pm in League One

Aston Villa

Last Six:
Last Game: Crystal Palace 3-1 Aston Villa
Saturday, August 20 at 3pm in Premier League

We said: Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Aston Villa

 Though they travel north on a down note, following a sluggish start to the season, it will be a much-changed Aston Villa XI that starts on Tuesday, and their top-level experience should prevent them from being turned over. Bolton rarely lose at home, but they now find themselves stepping up in class. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 45.62%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 30.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawAston Villa
30.5% (3.368 3.37) 23.87% (0.268 0.27) 45.62% (-3.64 -3.64)
Both teams to score 59.84% (1.474 1.47)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.87% (0.883 0.88)42.12% (-0.887 -0.89)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.47% (0.881 0.88)64.53% (-0.884 -0.88)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.59% (2.766 2.77)26.41% (-2.77 -2.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.43% (3.546 3.55)61.57% (-3.549 -3.55)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.31% (-1.097 -1.1)18.69% (1.093 1.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.96% (-1.871 -1.87)50.03% (1.867 1.87)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 30.5%
    Aston Villa 45.62%
    Draw 23.87%
Bolton WanderersDrawAston Villa
2-1 @ 7.34% (0.571 0.57)
1-0 @ 6.57% (0.248 0.25)
2-0 @ 4.37% (0.48 0.48)
3-1 @ 3.26% (0.479 0.48)
3-2 @ 2.73% (0.317 0.32)
3-0 @ 1.94% (0.343 0.34)
4-1 @ 1.08% (0.228 0.23)
4-2 @ 0.91% (0.166 0.17)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 30.5%
1-1 @ 11.02% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-2 @ 6.15% (0.275 0.28)
0-0 @ 4.94% (-0.199 -0.2)
3-3 @ 1.53% (0.129 0.13)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.87%
1-2 @ 9.24% (-0.303 -0.3)
0-1 @ 8.28% (-0.642 -0.64)
0-2 @ 6.94% (-0.808 -0.81)
1-3 @ 5.17% (-0.361 -0.36)
0-3 @ 3.88% (-0.608 -0.61)
2-3 @ 3.44% (0.036 0.04)
1-4 @ 2.17% (-0.235 -0.24)
0-4 @ 1.63% (-0.322 -0.32)
2-4 @ 1.44% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 3.43%
Total : 45.62%

How you voted: Bolton vs Aston Villa

Bolton Wanderers
21.2%
Draw
7.6%
Aston Villa
71.2%
118
Head to Head
Apr 19, 2019 3pm
Bolton
0-2
Aston Villa

Beevers (64'), Connolly (79')
Grealish (47'), Abraham (57')
Elmohamady (17')
> Match Report
Nov 2, 2018 7.45pm
Aston Villa
2-0
Bolton
Grealish (4'), Chester (58')

Olkowski (42'), Wheater (78'), Noone (82')
Mar 17, 2018 5.30pm
Bolton
1-0
Aston Villa
Le Fondre (19')
Henry (31')

Chester (17'), Snodgrass (31')
> Match Report
Sep 30, 2017 3pm
Aston Villa
1-0
Bolton
Kodjia (39' pen.)
Whelan (11')
Taylor (94')

Wheater (59'), Beevers (68'), Henry (90')
Mar 20, 2012 7.45pm
Aston Villa
1-2
Bolton
Warnock (61')
Lichaj (90')
Petrov (62' pen.)
Ricketts (35')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City117222213923
3Chelsea115422113819
4Arsenal115421812619
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144
> Premier League Full Table


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