MX23RW : Tuesday, November 5 07:51:52| >> :600:211332:211332:
Bolton logo
EFL Cup | Second Round
Aug 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
Aston Villa logo

Bolton
1 - 4
Aston Villa

Charles (24')
Johnston (13'), Dixon (61'), Kachunga (62')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Luiz (36'), Ings (63' pen.), Digne (66'), Bailey (87')
Luiz (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Bolton Wanderers and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Aston Villa

Though they travel north on a down note, following a sluggish start to the season, it will be a much-changed Aston Villa XI that starts on Tuesday, and their top-level experience should prevent them from being turned over. Bolton rarely lose at home, but they now find themselves stepping up in class. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 45.62%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 30.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawAston Villa
30.5% (3.368 3.37) 23.87% (0.268 0.27) 45.62% (-3.64 -3.64)
Both teams to score 59.84% (1.474 1.47)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.87% (0.883 0.88)42.12% (-0.887 -0.89)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.47% (0.881 0.88)64.53% (-0.884 -0.88)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.59% (2.766 2.77)26.41% (-2.77 -2.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.43% (3.546 3.55)61.57% (-3.549 -3.55)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.31% (-1.097 -1.1)18.69% (1.093 1.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.96% (-1.871 -1.87)50.03% (1.867 1.87)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 30.5%
    Aston Villa 45.62%
    Draw 23.87%
Bolton WanderersDrawAston Villa
2-1 @ 7.34% (0.571 0.57)
1-0 @ 6.57% (0.248 0.25)
2-0 @ 4.37% (0.48 0.48)
3-1 @ 3.26% (0.479 0.48)
3-2 @ 2.73% (0.317 0.32)
3-0 @ 1.94% (0.343 0.34)
4-1 @ 1.08% (0.228 0.23)
4-2 @ 0.91% (0.166 0.17)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 30.5%
1-1 @ 11.02% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-2 @ 6.15% (0.275 0.28)
0-0 @ 4.94% (-0.199 -0.2)
3-3 @ 1.53% (0.129 0.13)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.87%
1-2 @ 9.24% (-0.303 -0.3)
0-1 @ 8.28% (-0.642 -0.64)
0-2 @ 6.94% (-0.808 -0.81)
1-3 @ 5.17% (-0.361 -0.36)
0-3 @ 3.88% (-0.608 -0.61)
2-3 @ 3.44% (0.036 0.04)
1-4 @ 2.17% (-0.235 -0.24)
0-4 @ 1.63% (-0.322 -0.32)
2-4 @ 1.44% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 3.43%
Total : 45.62%

How you voted: Bolton vs Aston Villa

Bolton Wanderers
21.2%
Draw
7.6%
Aston Villa
71.2%
118
Head to Head
Apr 19, 2019 3pm
Nov 2, 2018 7.45pm
Mar 17, 2018 5.30pm
Sep 30, 2017 3pm
Aston Villa
1-0
Bolton
Kodjia (39' pen.)
Whelan (11')
Taylor (94')

Wheater (59'), Beevers (68'), Henry (90')
Mar 20, 2012 7.45pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Buccaneers
@
Chiefs
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool108111961325
2Manchester CityMan City1072121111023
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest10541147719
4Chelsea105322012818
5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
7Tottenham HotspurSpurs1051422111116
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
10Bournemouth104331312115
11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
12Brentford104151920-113
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd10334912-312
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


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