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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 73.34%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 10.64%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 3-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.48%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (3.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heerenveen |
73.34% ( -0.01) | 16.02% ( 0) | 10.64% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 52.36% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.85% ( 0) | 35.15% ( -0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.84% ( 0) | 57.16% ( -0) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.74% ( -0) | 8.26% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.15% ( -0) | 28.85% ( 0) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.07% ( 0.01) | 42.93% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.77% ( 0.01) | 79.23% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heerenveen |
2-0 @ 11.02% 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0) 3-0 @ 9.17% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.84% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.75% 4-0 @ 5.72% ( -0) 4-1 @ 4.83% 3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.85% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.41% 4-2 @ 2.04% 6-0 @ 1.19% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.02% 6-1 @ 1% Other @ 2.9% Total : 73.33% | 1-1 @ 7.48% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.94% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.55% 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 16.02% | 1-2 @ 3.16% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3% 0-2 @ 1.27% 2-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 2.11% Total : 10.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 19 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 62 | 18 | 44 | 46 |
2 | Ajax | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 45 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 40 |
4 | Feyenoord | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
5 | FC Twente | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 34 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 25 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 25 |
10 | Heerenveen | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 24 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 23 |
12 | Willem II | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 23 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 20 |
14 | Heracles | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 18 |
15 | Groningen | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 17 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 14 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 10 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 8 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |