We said: Malmo 0-2 Union Berlin
Both teams need to win this match to stand a realistic chance of progressing to the knockout stages, and we can envisage an entertaining match as a result.
However, there is little doubt that the visitors possess greater individual quality, which should help them record the first victory of their European campaign.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 41.53%. A win for Malmo had a probability of 33.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Malmo win was 1-0 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Union Berlin in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Union Berlin.