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Potential new EL header

Europa League
Molde logo
Europa League | Group Stage
Oct 5, 2023 at 8pm UK
Aker Stadion
Leverkusen logo

Molde
1 - 2
B. Leverkusen

Breivik (87')
Eriksen (42'), Fjortoft Lovik (67')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Frimpong (14'), Tella (18')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Molde and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Molde

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Molde 4-0 Viking FK
Sunday, October 1 at 4pm in Norwegian Eliteserien

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Mainz 0-3 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, September 30 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Molde 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen

 Molde showed plenty of quality in the opening Europa League group game, but this will be a different kind of test against one of the strongest teams in the competition. Bayer Leverkusen have made a perfect start to the season in all competitions, and with the attacking qualities that they have this should be a comfortable victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Molde win with a probability of 46.23%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Molde win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.86%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
MoldeDrawBayer Leverkusen
46.23% (0.112 0.11) 22.73% (0.0050000000000026 0.01) 31.03% (-0.123 -0.12)
Both teams to score 64.31% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.63% (-0.096999999999994 -0.1)36.36% (0.090999999999994 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.5% (-0.105 -0.11)58.5% (0.097999999999999 0.1)
Molde Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.8% (0.0019999999999953 0)16.2% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.31% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)45.68% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.74% (-0.123 -0.12)23.25% (0.116 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.83% (-0.175 -0.17)57.17% (0.168 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Molde 46.23%
    Bayer Leverkusen 31.03%
    Draw 22.73%
MoldeDrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 9.1% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
1-0 @ 6.86% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 6.24% (0.032 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.52% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 4.03% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.79% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.51% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.83% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.72% (0.01 0.01)
5-1 @ 0.92% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.71%
Total : 46.23%
1-1 @ 10% (0.012 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.64% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.77% (0.017 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.96% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 22.73%
1-2 @ 7.3% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.49% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.01% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.55% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 3.23% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.95% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.29% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.18% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 31.03%

How you voted: Molde vs B. Leverkusen

Molde
11.5%
Draw
12.5%
Bayer Leverkusen
76.0%
104
rhs 2.0
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