We said: Philippines 1-2 Nepal
While each of Philippines many defeats have come away from home, we cannot ignore the amount of goals that have been conceded. With that in mind, we fancy Nepal to add to their recent run of victories, even if it is a closely-fought contest.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philippines win with a probability of 91.32%. A draw had a probability of 6.3% and a win for Nepal had a probability of 2.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philippines win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (11.08%) and 2-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.93%), while for a Nepal win it was 1-2 (0.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Philippines would win this match.